Kogi 2027: Ebira Hold on Power Faces Fierce Storm as Igala, Okun Plot Historic Takeover

Kogi 2027: Ebira Hold on Power Faces Fierce Storm as Igala, Okun Plot Historic Takeover

As the 2027 governorship election draws near, Kogi State is once again at a tense political crossroads. The burning question is simple but explosive: Which senatorial district and by extension, which ethnic group will produce the next governor?

All eyes are on the Ebira of Kogi Central, who have held power since 2016 through Yahaya Bello and now Governor Usman Ododo. But as the elders warn, “Even the river that flowed last season must earn its way again to the ocean.”

Whether Central can retain control beyond 2027 depends on performance, alliances, zoning, and the unpredictable winds of national politics.

Incumbency favors the Ebira. With Ododo in Lugard House and APC still dominant, Central holds the levers of power. Yet, legitimacy must be earned. If Ododo is seen as fair and inclusive, continuity is possible. If not, resentment in Kogi East (Igala) and Kogi West (Okun) could explode into a strong push for change.

Since 1991:

Igala (East) ruled for 16 years.

Ebira (Central) since 2016.

Okun (West) has never tasted power.

This imbalance is fueling loud demands from Okun leaders for 2027. Their rallying cry is simple: “It’s our turn.”

The Igala remain the state’s largest voting bloc. Many still view their 2015 loss after the death of Prince Abubakar Audu as a betrayal. If they join forces with Okun, the Ebira stronghold could crumble. But history shows Igala divisions and opposition fragmentation (PDP, SDP, ADC) often play into APC’s hands.

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With youths making up the largest voting population, 2027 may no longer be about tribes but performance. As the saying goes, “The child who dances to yesterday’s drumbeat may miss today’s rhythm.” If Ebira leaders fail to adapt to evolving youth demands, they risk losing their strongest weapon.

At the federal level, APC dominance could shield the Ebira. Yahaya Bello, despite controversies, remains a heavyweight whose grip on party structures and grassroots mobilization cannot be ignored. But alliances beyond Central will be key—because “a tree supported by the forest does not fear the storm.”

Kogi polls are often marred by violence, rigging, and mistrust. In 2027, INEC and security agencies will be under intense scrutiny. As the proverb goes, “The dog that barks at the gate must be watched when the meat is missing from the pot.” Trust in the process may matter as much as the result.

The Ebira path to 2027 is real but fragile. Ododo’s performance, zoning demands, youth agitation, and opposition unity will determine whether Central retains power or whether the Igala and Okun finally seize the crown.

Above all, Kogi’s future demands equity and statesmanship. For as the elders remind us: “A pot cooked with three stones stands firmer than one leaning on a single leg.”